The question sounds simple, almost obvious:
What happens to Iran if the mullahs and the religious power structure disappear?
But behind it lies one of the greatest political, cultural, and human transformations of our time. Because when the Islamic Republic is no longer ruled by clerics, it is not only a regime that falls – it is an entire narrative about what Iran is, and must be, that collapses.
The real drama does not begin the day the regime falls.
It begins the day after.
Two Irans – the official one and the real one
From the outside, Iran often appears monolithic: black-robed clerics, Revolutionary Guards, anti-Western rhetoric, religious discipline. But this is only the official image – the one broadcast on state television and projected in UN speeches.
Behind the façade lives a completely different Iran.
An Iran where:
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young women refuse to accept coercion and submission
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students talk more about AI, startups, and global culture than ideology
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artists create in secret and publish in exile
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entrepreneurs flee, yet dream of returning
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families long for normality, not martyrdom
The new Iran already exists.
It is just silenced, not defeated.
The fall of the regime – not the end, but the beginning
When the mullahs finally lose their grip, the world will likely celebrate. Headlines will speak of “freedom’s victory” and “the return of democracy.” But history teaches us that the fall of power rarely means the beginning of stability.
What comes first is a vacuum.
No strong democratic structure is waiting in the wings. There are opposition movements – in exile and underground – but they are fragmented. The risk is obvious:
a power vacuum filled by military interests, regional actors, or internal struggles.
At the same time, there will be an explosion of freedom:
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women without headscarves in the streets
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censorship collapsing overnight
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social media flooded with voices silenced for decades
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exiled Iranians returning just to see their country again
Freedom will feel euphoric – and fragile.
The identity crisis: Who is Iran without the revolution?
The Islamic Revolution of 1979 was not only a political shift. It became an identity project. For over forty years, the state has built the image of Iran as:
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anti-Western
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revolutionary
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religiously superior
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morally chosen
When this disappears, a void emerges. An entire nation must answer the question:
Who are we without the revolution?
Is Iran a religious project?
A Persian cultural civilization?
A regional power?
Or simply a people who want to live normal lives?
The new Iran must define itself – without imposed ideology.
What does the new Iran want?
It is easy to assume that a free Iran automatically wants to become “like the West.” But the picture is more nuanced. The strongest voices among young Iranians, diaspora intellectuals, and emerging civil society do not point toward blind Westernization.
They point toward something else:
normality.
An Iran that wants to be:
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secular but culturally Persian
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modern without losing its history
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open without becoming a pawn of great powers
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proud without being aggressive
The new Iran does not want to mirror the United States.
It wants to become Iran again – before the theocracy, before ideology, before the constant mobilization against external enemies.
The great danger: replacing tyranny with chaos
History is merciless when it comes to naive hopes.
We have seen it before:
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Iraq after Saddam
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Libya after Gaddafi
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Afghanistan after the Taliban’s first fall
Toppling oppression is not the same as building a society.
Without:
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a clear transitional government
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a functioning state apparatus
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international stabilization
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internal reconciliation
… Iran could move from theocracy to permanent instability. The country risks becoming yet another arena for proxy wars, regional rivalries, and political fragmentation.
And once again, it would be the people who pay the price.
The great opportunity: the return of Persia
But there is another path.
Imagine if Iran manages to do what few countries in the region have achieved:
not only overthrow repression, but replace it with a civil, secular, functioning society.
Then something historic could happen.
Iran has every prerequisite:
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a highly educated population
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a strong cultural heritage
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a tech-savvy youth
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a global diaspora with capital and experience
A stable, open Iran could become:
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the cultural engine of the Middle East
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a bridge between East and West
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proof that modernity does not require Western identity
It would not just be a new Iran.
It would be a new narrative for the entire region.
Women – the real revolution
No force in Iran is stronger than its women.
What began as protests against the compulsory hijab became something far greater: a movement for dignity, freedom, and self-determination. Not in theory – but in everyday life.
When the mullahs fall, it will not be men in suits who transform Iran the most.
It will be the women who have already carried out the revolution in their own lives.
A new Iran without female leadership, participation, and freedom will not be a new Iran. It will simply be a new version of the same old prison.
The diaspora – the return from exile
Millions of Iranians today live outside their homeland. They are doctors, engineers, entrepreneurs, artists, scholars. Many were forced to leave – but never left in their hearts.
When the regime falls, this could become Iran’s greatest asset.
But also a source of tension.
Exile Iran and home Iran have developed differently. Values, expectations, and political dreams do not always align. The challenge will be to build a country that does not become an elite project for returnees, but a home for everyone.
What do ordinary people really want?
When you listen to ordinary Iranians – not political activists, not exiled leaders, but everyday people – you do not hear grand ideologies.
You hear something much simpler:
“We just want to live normal lives.”
Not sharia.
Not revolution.
Not great-power politics.
Just:
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safety
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work
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love
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a future
It sounds banal.
And that is precisely why it is so subversive.
Every extremist ideology depends on people never being allowed to live normal lives. They must always be mobilized, sacrificed, kept in struggle.
A normal life is the greatest enemy of every dictatorship.
The world’s responsibility – and the world’s temptation
When the mullahs fall, the great powers will be ready.
The United States will seek influence.
Russia will try to keep its foothold.
China will protect its economic interests.
Regional actors will attempt to reshape the balance of power.
The risk is that Iran once again becomes a chessboard for other people’s strategies.
The greatest service the world can give a new Iran is not to control it –
but to let it build itself.
Support without domination.
Partnership without control.
Respect for the fact that Iran must be allowed to become Iran – not someone else’s project.
Final words: The day after
When the mullahs finally disappear, headlines will speak of victory, liberation, and revolution. But the real test begins when the cameras turn away.
Because freedom is not a moment.
It is a process.
The new Iran does not want to be:
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the mullahs’ Iran
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America’s enemy
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Russia’s pawn
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the Middle East’s battlefield
It wants to be a country where the future is no longer forbidden.
The question is not whether Iran will change.
It already is – in every woman who refuses to be silent, in every young person who refuses to give up.
The question is whether the world has the patience to let Iran take the hardest path of all:
the path from oppression, through uncertainty, to a society where power is no longer sacred – and where the human being finally is.
By Chris...
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